the yahngorithm
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Wofford
Southern · FCS
15
@
Kent State
Mid-American
36
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Dix Stadium
Market spreadKENT -10
Market total46
Model spreadKENT -6.8
Edge-3.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel KENT -6.8
market KENT -10  ·  edge -3.2 (away)  ·  WOF -33.2 vs KENT -28.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel KENT -8.1
market KENT -10  ·  edge -1.9  ·  WOF -33.3 vs KENT -27.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Kent State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WOF-33.2—-0.1-33.3
KENT-28.9+0.3+0.8-27.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WOF expected
19
1.6 pts/poss
KENT expected
25.8
2.2 pts/poss
Model total
44.8
market 46 · 23.2 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

reverse line moveWoffordbook -1.5/30h, 742986 volhurts WOF
Within the last day or so, the book's number moved toward this team while the Kalshi prediction market (real money, no vig) didn't move with it, on a market with real volume. The line drifting this way looks like public money, not a real shift — the sharp market isn't backing it. Lean the other side.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WOFKENT
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (KENT)Total
betmgm-10 -11045.5 -110
betonlineag-10 -11045.5 -110
betrivers-10.5 -11346.5 -109
bovada-11 +10547 +105
draftkings-11.5 -11546.5 -116
fanduel-10.5 -10546.5 -110
lowvig-10 -11045.5 -110
mybookieag–46 -110

Best KENT number -10 · best WOF number +11.5. Best over 45.5 · best under 47. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from KENT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WOF1%
KENT99%▲ 18.6
Implied lineKENT -31.4
Volume743k
Open interest529k
Traded 24h714k

Kalshi's market prices KENT to win 99% — about KENT -31.4 vs the book's KENT -10. 21.4-pt gap — the market rates KENT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.