the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Army. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ARMY) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -3 -115 | 46 -115 |
| betrivers | -4 -110 | 45.5 -115 |
| betus | -3 -115 | 46 -115 |
| bovada | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -3 -125 | 45.5 -119 |
| fanduel | -3.5 -102 | 45.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -3 -111 | 46 -114 |
| mybookieag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 |
Best ARMY number -3 · best USF number +4. Best over 45.5 · best under 46. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARMY's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyARMY -3.5 (-4–-3)o/u 45.5 (45.5–46)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyARMY -3.5 (-4–-3)o/u 45.5 (45.5–46)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyARMY -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 46 (45.5–46.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyARMY -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 46 (45.5–46.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyARMY -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 46 (46–46.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ARMY to win 75% — about ARMY -9 vs the book's ARMY -3.5. 5.5-pt gap — the market rates ARMY higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 12:00 PMARMY 66%585k vol
- Sep 12, 12:30 PMARMY 80%836k vol
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMARMY 59%1413k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMARMY 72%1654k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMARMY 75%2278k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM70°F (feels 72°)wind 5.3 g11precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM72°F (feels 74°)wind 6.3 g11precip 0%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM72°F (feels 75°)wind 5.5 g10precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.