the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Michigan. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (MICH) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +5 -108 | 43.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | +4.5 -107 | 43.5 -107 |
| betrivers | +6 -115 | 45.5 +114 |
| betus | +5 -110 | 43.5 -105 |
| bovada | +5 -115 | 43.5 -110 |
| draftkings | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 |
| fanduel | +4.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 |
| lowvig | +4.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | +5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
Best MICH number +6 · best OU number -4.5. Best over 43.5 · best under 45.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MICH's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyOU -5 (4.5–6)o/u 43.5 (43.5–45.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyOU -4.5 (4.5–6)o/u 43.5 (43–43.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyOU -4.5 (4.5–5.5)o/u 43.5 (43.5–44)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyOU -4.5 (4.5–5.5)o/u 43.59 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyOU -4.5 (4.5–5.5)o/u 43.59 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices MICH to win 84% — about MICH -13.4 vs the book's OU -5. 18.4-pt gap — the market rates MICH higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 12:30 PMMICH 62%8492k vol
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMMICH 71%9798k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMMICH 50%11220k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMMICH 44%13405k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMMICH 84%17264k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 79°)wind 9.2 g16precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 77°)wind 10.8 g20precip 8%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 82°)wind 6.5 g10precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.