the yahngorithm
← board
Arizona State
Big 12
20
@
8Texas A&M
SEC
48
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ABC · Kyle Field
Market spreadTA&M -14.5
Market total51
Model spreadTA&M -17.7
Edge+3.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TA&M -17.7
market TA&M -14.5  ·  edge +3.2 (home)  ·  ASU +7.3 vs TA&M +22.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TA&M -18.8
market TA&M -14.5  ·  edge +4.3 (home)  ·  ASU +6.9 vs TA&M +22.6 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas A&M. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ASU+7.30-0.3+6.9
TA&M+22.5-0.2+0.3+22.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ASU expected
18.9
1.5 pts/poss
TA&M expected
36.6
3 pts/poss
Model total
55.5
market 51 · 24.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.5
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelArizona State933 mi, 2hhurts ASU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ASUTA&M
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-02-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-02-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TA&M)Total
betmgm-15 -11251.5 -108
betonlineag-14.5 -11651.5 -102
betrivers-15 -11051 -110
betus-16 -11051 -110
bovada-15 -11051.5 -110
draftkings-14.5 -11251.5 -105
fanduel-14.5 -11051.5 -108
lowvig-14.5 -11151.5 -108
mybookieag-14.5 -11051 -110

Best TA&M number -14.5 · best ASU number +16. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TA&M's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ASU1%
TA&M99%▲ 13.7
Implied lineTA&M -31.4
Volume5678k
Open interest3697k
Traded 24h5556k

Kalshi's market prices TA&M to win 99% — about TA&M -31.4 vs the book's TA&M -14.5. 16.9-pt gap — the market rates TA&M higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKTA&M -14.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +3.2 edgeWIN
model 17.7logged 14.5close 14.5CLV 0
travel

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.