the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Kansas State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (KSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -17.5 -108 | 48.5 -102 |
| betonlineag | -18 -112 | 48 -105 |
| betrivers | -17.5 -110 | 49 -109 |
| betus | -18 -110 | 48 -110 |
| bovada | -18 -110 | 48 -110 |
| draftkings | -17.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -17.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 |
| lowvig | -18 -108 | 48 -103 |
| mybookieag | -17.5 -110 | 48 -110 |
Best KSU number -17.5 · best WSU number +18. Best over 48 · best under 49. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from KSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyKSU -17.5 (-18–-17.5)o/u 49 (48–49.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyKSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49 (48.5–49.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyKSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49 (48.5–49.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyKSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49.5 (49–49.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyKSU -17.5o/u 49.5 (49–49.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices KSU to win 99% — about KSU -31.4 vs the book's KSU -17.5. 13.9-pt gap — the market rates KSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMKSU 96%824k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMKSU 97%843k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMKSU 99%1081k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMKSU 99%1085k vol
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMKSU 99%1087k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 87°)wind 7 g9precip 6%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM85°F (feels 89°)wind 7.1 g10precip 3%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 90°)wind 5.6 g6precip 8%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.