the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Oklahoma State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (OKST) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +24 -110 | 54.5 -125 |
| betonlineag | +24 -106 | 55 -110 |
| betrivers | +24 -114 | 54.5 -113 |
| betus | +24 -105 | 55 -110 |
| bovada | +23.5 -110 | 55 -110 |
| draftkings | +24.5 -118 | 55.5 -105 |
| fanduel | +23.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 |
| lowvig | +24 -106 | 55 -108 |
| mybookieag | +24 -105 | 54.5 -110 |
Best OKST number +24.5 · best ORE number -23.5. Best over 54.5 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OKST's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyORE -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyORE -23.5 (23–24)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyORE -23.5 (23–23.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyORE -23.5 (23–23.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyORE -23 (23–23.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices OKST to win 79% — about OKST -11.1 vs the book's ORE -24. 35.1-pt gap — the market rates OKST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMOKST 47%4892k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMOKST 40%6029k vol
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMOKST 25%8883k vol
- Sep 12, 3:30 PMOKST 28%11490k vol
- Sep 12, 4:01 PMOKST 79%14864k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM85°F (feels 93°)wind 8.9 g12precip 13%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM86°F (feels 92°)wind 7.2 g14precip 8%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM90°F (feels 96°)wind 6.4 g15precip 14%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.