the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (UGA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -40.5 -114 | 55.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -41 -112 | 55.5 -114 |
| betus | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 |
| bovada | -40 -110 | 56 -105 |
| draftkings | -40.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -114 |
Best UGA number -40 · best WKU number +41. Best over 55.5 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:30 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UGA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyUGA -40.5 (-41–-39.5)o/u 55.5 (55–56)8 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyUGA -40.5 (-41–-39.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyUGA -40.3 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyUGA -40.3 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyUGA -40.3 (-41.5–-39.5)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices UGA to win 99% — about UGA -31.4 vs the book's UGA -40.5. 9.1-pt gap — the market rates WKU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMUGA 99%309k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMUGA 99%314k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMUGA 99%315k vol
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMUGA 99%315k vol
- Sep 12, 3:30 PMUGA 99%317k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 86°)wind 7.3 g14precip 21%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM76°F (feels 84°)wind 2.2 g6precip 25%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM82°F (feels 87°)wind 7.8 g14precip 36%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.