the yahngorithm

← board

UT Martin

OVC · FCS

West Virginia

Big 12

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Milan Puskar Stadium

Market spreadWVU -41.5

Market total57

Model spreadWVU -24.1

Edge-17.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WVU -24.1

market WVU -41.5 · edge -17.4 (away) · UTM -27.4 vs WVU -5.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WVU -24.8

market WVU -41.5 · edge -16.7 (away) · UTM -27.5 vs WVU -5.5 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 5 books. Positive edge = model likes West Virginia. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UTM-27.4—0-27.5

WVU-5.8+0.3+0.1-5.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UTM expected

15.3

1.2 pts/poss

WVU expected

39.4

3.2 pts/poss

Model total

54.7

market 57 · 24.9 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.3

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UTMWVU

ATS overall0-11-1

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (WVU)	Total
betmgm	-41.5 -108	56.5 -110
betonlineag	-41 -108	57 -115
betrivers	-41 -114	55.5 -117
bovada	-41.5 -110	57.5 -105
draftkings	-41.5 -108	57.5 -108
fanduel	-41.5 -110	56.5 -110

Best WVU number -41 · best UTM number +41.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 12:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WVU's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyWVU -41.5 (-41.5–-41)o/u 57 (56.5–57.5)5 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWVU -41.5 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–57.5)6 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyWVU -41.5 (-41.5–-41)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)6 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyWVU -42 (-42–-41.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)5 books
Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyWVU -42 (-42–-41.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)5 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 90°)wind 9 g15precip 9%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 90°)wind 4.3 g11precip 19%
Sep 11, 6:00 AM82°F (feels 89°)wind 2.6 g10precip 11%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.