the yahngorithm
← board
Colgate
Patriot · FCS
10
@
Central Michigan
Mid-American
13
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Market spreadCMU -18.5
Market total49.5
Model spreadCMU -10.6
Edge-7.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CMU -10.6
market CMU -18.5  ·  edge -7.9 (away)  ·  COLG -29.5 vs CMU -21.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CMU -11.6
market CMU -18.5  ·  edge -6.9 (away)  ·  COLG -29.6 vs CMU -20.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Central Michigan. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
COLG-29.5—0-29.6
CMU-21.4+0.2+0.5-20.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

COLG expected
17.7
1.6 pts/poss
CMU expected
28.3
2.5 pts/poss
Model total
46
market 49.5 · 22.6 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.5
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamColgate1.5 pts in 3hhelps COLG
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

COLGCMU
ATS overall1-00-2
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-00-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–0-1
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CMU)Total
betmgm-18.5 -11049.5 -105
betonlineag-18.5 -11049.5 -110
betrivers-19.5 -11248.5 -110
bovada-18.5 -11049 -110
draftkings-18.5 -10848.5 -115
fanduel-19.5 -11049.5 -105
lowvig-18.5 -11049.5 -110
mybookieag-18.5 -11049 -110

Best CMU number -18.5 · best COLG number +19.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 12:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CMU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

COLG26%
CMU74%▼ 19
Implied lineCMU -8.7
Volume1323k
Open interest752k
Traded 24h1019k

Kalshi's market prices CMU to win 74% — about CMU -8.7 vs the book's CMU -18.5. 9.8-pt gap — the market rates COLG higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.