the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Miami (OH). Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (M-OH) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -30.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -30.5 -110 | 47 -115 |
| betrivers | -30.5 -114 | 48.5 -107 |
| bovada | -30.5 -110 | 47 -115 |
| draftkings | -30.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -29.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 |
| lowvig | -30.5 -110 | 47 -115 |
Best M-OH number -29.5 · best HC number +30.5. Best over 46.5 · best under 48.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 12:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from M-OH's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyM-OH -30.5 (-30.5–-29.5)o/u 47 (46.5–48.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyM-OH -30.5 (-31.5–-30)o/u 47.3 (46.5–48.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyM-OH -31 (-31.5–-30)o/u 49.5 (47.5–50.5)7 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyM-OH -30.5 (-31–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (50–50.5)6 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyM-OH -30.5 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (50–50.5)6 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices M-OH to win 99% — about M-OH -31.4 vs the book's M-OH -30.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMM-OH 99%167k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMM-OH 99%167k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMM-OH 99%167k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMM-OH 99%168k vol
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMM-OH 99%168k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM74°F (feels 79°)wind 5.7 g7precip 30%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 81°)wind 6.5 g17precip 27%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 83°)wind 7 g12precip 19%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.