the yahngorithm
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California
ACC
21
@
Syracuse
ACC
18
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · JMA Wireless Dome · indoor
Market spreadSYR -3.8
Market total57
Model spreadSYR -8.6
Edge+4.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SYR -8.6
market SYR -3.8  ·  edge +4.8 (home)  ·  CAL -4.8 vs SYR +1.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SYR -8.6
market SYR -3.8  ·  edge +4.9 (home)  ·  CAL -4.3 vs SYR +1.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Syracuse. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CAL-4.8-0.3+0.8-4.3
SYR+1.3+0.3—+1.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CAL expected
24.2
1.9 pts/poss
SYR expected
32.8
2.6 pts/poss
Model total
57.1
market 57 · 25 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelCalifornia2420 mi, 3hhurts CAL
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
revengeCalifornialost by 8helps CAL
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CALSYR
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite–1-1
ATS as underdog1-1–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home0-11-1
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SYR)Total
betmgm-4 -11056.5 -120
betonlineag-4 -11257 -110
betrivers-3.5 -11457 -112
betus-4 -11057 -115
bovada-4 -11057 -110
draftkings-4 -11056.5 -112
fanduel-4.5 -10556.5 -114
lowvig-4 -10857 -108
mybookieag-4 -11057 -110

Best SYR number -3.5 · best CAL number +4.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SYR's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CAL99%
SYR1%▼ 60.4
Implied lineCAL -31.4
Volume7266k
Open interest3769k
Traded 24h4933k

Kalshi's market prices SYR to win 1% — about CAL -31.4 vs the book's SYR -3.8. 35.2-pt gap — the market rates CAL higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKSYR -3.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +5.1 edgeLOSS
model 8.6logged 3.5close 3.5CLV 0
travel

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.