the yahngorithm
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Arizona
Big 12
17
@
14BYU
Big 12
28
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · FOX · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Market spreadBYU -6.5
Market total49
Model spreadBYU -6.7
Edge+0.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BYU -6.7
market BYU -6.5  ·  edge +0.2  ·  ARIZ +11.2 vs BYU +15.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BYU -7.5
market BYU -6.5  ·  edge +1  ·  ARIZ +10.8 vs BYU +15.3 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes BYU. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ARIZ+11.2-0.3-0.1+10.8
BYU+15.4+0.2-0.3+15.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ARIZ expected
22.5
2 pts/poss
BYU expected
29.2
2.5 pts/poss
Model total
51.6
market 49 · 23 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.6
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeArizonalost by 6helps ARIZ
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ARIZBYU
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-12-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (BYU)Total
betmgm-6.5 -11548.5 -112
betonlineag-6.5 -11549.5 -110
betrivers-7 -11048 -114
betus-6.5 -11049.5 -110
bovada-6.5 -11049 -110
draftkings-6.5 -11848.5 -115
fanduel-6.5 -12248.5 -106
lowvig-6.5 -11149.5 -108
mybookieag-7 -11049 -110

Best BYU number -6.5 · best ARIZ number +7. Best over 48 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BYU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ARIZ1%
BYU99%▲ 26.7
Implied lineBYU -31.4
Volume3519k
Open interest2317k
Traded 24h3427k

Kalshi's market prices BYU to win 99% — about BYU -31.4 vs the book's BYU -6.5. 24.9-pt gap — the market rates BYU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.