the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Pittsburgh. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (PITT) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -7 -112 | 55.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -7 -115 | 55.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -7 -114 | 56 -110 |
| betus | -7 -115 | 56 -110 |
| bovada | -7 -110 | 55 -115 |
| draftkings | -7 -115 | 55.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -7 -111 | 55.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -7 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
Best PITT number -7 · best UCF number +7.5. Best over 55 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PITT's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyPITT -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 55.5 (55–56)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyPITT -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 55.5 (55–56)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyPITT -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 55.5 (55–56.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyPITT -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 55.5 (55–57)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyPITT -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 55.5 (55–56.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices PITT to win 90% — about PITT -17.4 vs the book's PITT -7. 10.4-pt gap — the market rates PITT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMPITT 77%248k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMPITT 91%314k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMPITT 95%458k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMPITT 96%458k vol
- Sep 12, 6:30 PMPITT 90%731k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM83°F (feels 89°)wind 8.5 g12precip 11%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 90°)wind 7.4 g12precip 19%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM79°Fwind 20 g29precip 42%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.