the yahngorithm
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Weber State
Big Sky · FCS
21
@
Colorado
Big 12
52
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Folsom Field
Market spreadCOLO -38.5
Market total57.5
Model spreadCOLO -37.1
Edge-1.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel COLO -37.1
market COLO -38.5  ·  edge -1.4  ·  WEB -33.9 vs COLO +0.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel COLO -38.2
market COLO -38.5  ·  edge -0.3  ·  WEB -34.1 vs COLO +0.9 + 3.3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Colorado. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WEB-33.9—-0.1-34.1
COLO+0.7+0.30+0.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WEB expected
11.9
1 pts/poss
COLO expected
49
4.2 pts/poss
Model total
60.9
market 57.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamColorado3.5 pts in 2hhelps COLO
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
letdownColoradobeat Georgia Techhurts COLO
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WEBCOLO
ATS overall1-01-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (COLO)Total
betmgm-37.5 -11257.5 -110
betrivers-38.5 -10857.5 -115
bovada-38.5 -11557.5 -110
draftkings-38.5 -11257.5 -112
fanduel-38.5 -10556.5 -115
lowvig-39 -10557 -115

Best COLO number -37.5 · best WEB number +39. Best over 56.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from COLO's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WEB1%
COLO99%▲ 1
Implied lineCOLO -31.4
Volume539k
Open interest525k
Traded 24h450k

Kalshi's market prices COLO to win 99% — about COLO -31.4 vs the book's COLO -38.5. 7.1-pt gap — the market rates WEB higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.