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UTSA
American Athletic
31
@
Texas State
Pac-12
26
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · CW · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Market spreadTXST -2
Market total65.5
Model spreadUTSA -8.2
Edge-10.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UTSA -8.2
market TXST -2  ·  edge -10.2 (away)  ·  UTSA +1.5 vs TXST -9.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UTSA -7.9
market TXST -2  ·  edge -9.9 (away)  ·  UTSA +1.8 vs TXST -8.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UTSA+1.5+0.3+0.1+1.8
TXST-9.2-0.3+0.7-8.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UTSA expected
37.6
3.1 pts/poss
TXST expected
29.4
2.5 pts/poss
Model total
67.1
market 65.5 · 24 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.6
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams95°F, feels 111°, 62% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
revengeUTSAlost by 7 (rivalry)helps UTSA
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UTSATXST
ATS overall2-00-2
ATS at home1-00-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite1-00-1
ATS as underdog1-00-1
ATS after a win1-0–
ATS after a loss–0-1
W–L at home1-00-1
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TXST)Total
betmgm-2 -10865.5 -110
betonlineag-1.5 -11066.5 -107
betrivers-2 -11365.5 -118
betus-2 -11066.5 -110
bovada-1.5 -11065.5 -115
draftkings-1.5 -11265.5 -110
fanduel-2.5 -11065.5 -110
lowvig-1.5 -10666 -110
mybookieag-1.5 -11065.5 -110

Best TXST number -1.5 · best UTSA number +2.5. Best over 65.5 · best under 66.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TXST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UTSA99%
TXST1%▼ 53.5
Implied lineUTSA -31.4
Volume1845k
Open interest881k
Traded 24h1716k

Kalshi's market prices TXST to win 1% — about UTSA -31.4 vs the book's TXST -2. 33.4-pt gap — the market rates UTSA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKUTSA +1.5spread · sp_plus · logged at -9.7 edgeWIN
model -8.2logged 1.5close 2CLV -0.5
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.