the yahngorithm

← board

Central Connecticut

NEC · FCS

Toledo

Mid-American

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Glass Bowl

Market spreadTOL -36

Market total52.5

Model spreadTOL -33.3

Edge-2.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TOL -33.3

market TOL -36 · edge -2.7 (away) · CCSU -41.6 vs TOL -10.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TOL -34

market TOL -36 · edge -2 · CCSU -41.7 vs TOL -10.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 5 books. Positive edge = model likes Toledo. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

CCSU-41.6—0-41.7

TOL-10.8+0.3+0.3-10.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CCSU expected

10.3

0.9 pts/poss

TOL expected

43.6

3.7 pts/poss

Model total

market 52.5 · 23.6 poss, average pace

Edge

+1.5

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CCSUTOL

ATS overall0-11-0-1

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-10-0-1

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-10-0-1

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TOL)	Total
betmgm	-35.5 -110	53.5 -110
betrivers	-36 -112	52.5 -110
bovada	-36.5 -110	52.5 -110
draftkings	-36.5 -115	53.5 -108
fanduel	-35.5 -112	52.5 -112

Best TOL number -35.5 · best CCSU number +36.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TOL's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyTOL -36 (-36.5–-35.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)5 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyTOL -36 (-36.5–-35.5)o/u 52.5 (52–52.5)5 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyTOL -35.5 (-36.5–-35.5)o/u 53.3 (52–54.5)5 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyTOL -35.5 (-36–-35)o/u 54.5 (52.5–54.5)5 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyTOL -35.5 (-36–-35.5)o/u 54.54 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CCSU1%

TOL99%▲ 1

Implied lineTOL -31.4

Volume194k

Open interest181k

Traded 24h161k

Kalshi's market prices TOL to win 99% — about TOL -31.4 vs the book's TOL -36. 4.6-pt gap — the market rates CCSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 3:00 PMTOL 98%153k vol
Sep 12, 3:30 PMTOL 99%189k vol
Sep 12, 4:01 PMTOL 99%190k vol
Sep 12, 4:31 PMTOL 99%191k vol
Sep 12, 5:01 PMTOL 99%194k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM78°F (feels 86°)wind 2.9 g7precip 1%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM82°F (feels 86°)wind 10.2 g15precip 7%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 79°)wind 7.8 g15precip 10%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.