the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Notre Dame. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ND) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -44.5 -108 | 55.5 -102 |
| betonlineag | -44.5 -104 | 54 -110 |
| betrivers | -44.5 -115 | 55 -110 |
| betus | -44.5 -105 | 54 -110 |
| bovada | -45 -110 | 54.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -44.5 -112 | 54.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -44.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| lowvig | -44.5 -106 | 54 -108 |
Best ND number -44.5 · best RICE number +45. Best over 54 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ND's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyND -44.5 (-45–-44.5)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyND -44.5 (-45–-44.5)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyND -44.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyND -45 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyND -44.5 (-45–-44.5)o/u 55 (55–55.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ND to win 99% — about ND -31.4 vs the book's ND -44.5. 13.1-pt gap — the market rates RICE higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMND 99%931k vol
- Sep 12, 3:30 PMND 99%943k vol
- Sep 12, 4:01 PMND 99%948k vol
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMND 99%961k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMND 99%961k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM85°F (feels 90°)wind 6.4 g11precip 1%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 88°)wind 9.3 g13precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM86°F (feels 90°)wind 8.6 g11precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.