the yahngorithm

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Utah State

Pac-12

17Washington

Big Ten

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · BTN · Husky Stadium

Market spreadWASH -28

Market total55.5

Model spreadWASH -26

Edge-2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WASH -26

market WASH -28 · edge -2 · USU -12.9 vs WASH +10.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WASH -25.2

market WASH -28 · edge -2.8 (away) · USU -12.2 vs WASH +10.1 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Washington. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

USU-12.9+0.2+0.6-12.2

WASH+10.6-0.3-0.2+10.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

USU expected

12.7

1.1 pts/poss

WASH expected

38.7

3.3 pts/poss

Model total

51.4

market 55.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace

Edge

-4.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

short weekWashington6d resthurts WASH

Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

letdownWashingtonbeat Washington Statehurts WASH

Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

bad spotWashingtonshort week + letdownhurts WASH

Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

USUWASH

ATS overall1-10-2

ATS at home0-10-2

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite0-10-2

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home0-12-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–2U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (WASH)	Total
betmgm	-28 -110	55.5 -108
betonlineag	-28 -115	55.5 -110
betrivers	-28 -114	56 -114
betus	-28 -115	55.5 -110
bovada	-28.5 -105	55.5 -110
draftkings	-28.5 -102	55.5 -105
fanduel	-27.5 -120	55.5 -110
lowvig	-28 -111	55.5 -108
mybookieag	-28 -110	55.5 -110

Best WASH number -27.5 · best USU number +28.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WASH's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyWASH -28 (-28.5–-27.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyWASH -28 (-28.5–-27.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWASH -28 (-28.5–-27)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyWASH -27.5 (-28–-27)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyWASH -27 (-27.5–-27)o/u 55.59 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

USU1%

WASH99%▲ 3

Implied lineWASH -31.4

Volume2345k

Open interest1258k

Traded 24h2084k

Kalshi's market prices WASH to win 99% — about WASH -31.4 vs the book's WASH -28. 3.4-pt gap — the market rates WASH higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 4:01 PMWASH 93%468k vol
Sep 12, 4:31 PMWASH 89%698k vol
Sep 12, 5:01 PMWASH 96%970k vol
Sep 12, 6:01 PMWASH 99%2341k vol
Sep 12, 6:01 PMWASH 99%2345k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM65°F (feels 64°)wind 5.4 g6precip 1%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM69°F (feels 68°)wind 5.1 g6precip 1%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM67°F (feels 66°)wind 5.1 g6precip 4%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.