the yahngorithm
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Maryland
Big Ten
38
@
UConn
FBS Independents
14
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · CBSSN · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Market spreadMD -11.5
Market total52.5
Model spreadMD -12.9
Edge-1.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MD -12.9
market MD -11.5  ·  edge -1.4  ·  MD +7.7 vs CONN -7.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MD -12.7
market MD -11.5  ·  edge -1.2  ·  MD +7.8 vs CONN -7.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes UConn. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MD+7.7+0.3-0.1+7.8
CONN-7.7+0.3-0.1-7.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MD expected
32.9
2.7 pts/poss
CONN expected
20
1.7 pts/poss
Model total
53
market 52.5 · 24.2 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.5
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadMarylandthen Virginia Techhurts MD
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MDCONN
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite2-01-0
ATS as underdog–0-1
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CONN)Total
betmgm+11.5 -11052.5 -110
betonlineag+11 -10552.5 -115
betrivers+11.5 -11052.5 -115
betus+11.5 -11052.5 -115
bovada+12 -11053 -115
draftkings+11.5 -11252.5 -112
fanduel+11.5 -11052.5 -112
lowvig+11 -10152.5 -114
mybookieag+11.5 -11052 -110

Best CONN number +12 · best MD number -11. Best over 52 · best under 53. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CONN's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MD99%
CONN1%▼ 18.6
Implied lineMD -31.4
Volume632k
Open interest437k
Traded 24h588k

Kalshi's market prices CONN to win 1% — about MD -31.4 vs the book's MD -11.5. 19.9-pt gap — the market rates MD higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.