the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Michigan State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (MSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -17 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -17.5 -104 | 50 -105 |
| betrivers | -17.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 |
| betus | -17.5 -105 | 50 -110 |
| bovada | -17.5 -105 | 50 -110 |
| draftkings | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -17.5 +100 | 50 -103 |
| mybookieag | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 |
Best MSU number -17 · best EMU number +17.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyMSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49.8 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyMSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49.5 (49.5–50)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyMSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 49.5 (49.5–50)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyMSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 50 (49.5–50)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyMSU -17.5 (-17.5–-17)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices MSU to win 99% — about MSU -31.4 vs the book's MSU -17.5. 13.9-pt gap — the market rates MSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 3:00 PMMSU 94%109k vol
- Sep 12, 3:30 PMMSU 97%155k vol
- Sep 12, 4:01 PMMSU 94%257k vol
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMMSU 92%365k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMMSU 99%466k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM83°F (feels 86°)wind 7.9 g14precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 84°)wind 11.9 g18precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 85°)wind 12.9 g18precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.