the yahngorithm

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Wagner

NEC · FCS

James Madison

Sun Belt

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Bridgeforth Stadium

Market spreadJMU -46

Market total56.5

Model spreadJMU -43.8

Edge-2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel JMU -43.8

market JMU -46 · edge -2.2 · WAG -43 vs JMU -1.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel JMU -43.7

market JMU -46 · edge -2.3 · WAG -43 vs JMU -2.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes James Madison. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

WAG-43——-43

JMU-1.7+0.3-0.6-2.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WAG expected

0.6 pts/poss

JMU expected

35.1

3 pts/poss

Model total

42.1

market 56.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace

Edge

-14.4

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WAGJMU

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–2-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–2-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (JMU)	Total
betmgm	-46 -110	56.5 -108
betonlineag	-45.5 -115	57 -110
betrivers	-46 -114	56.5 -113
bovada	-46.5 -110	57 -110
draftkings	-46.5 -112	56.5 -112
fanduel	-46.5 -110	56.5 -110
lowvig	-45.5 -115	57 -110

Best JMU number -45.5 · best WAG number +46.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from JMU's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyJMU -46 (-46.5–-45.5)o/u 56.5 (56.5–57)7 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyJMU -46.5 (-47–-45.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyJMU -45.5 (-46–-45.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)6 books
Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyJMU -45.5 (-46–-45.5)o/u 55.5 (54.5–56)6 books
Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyJMU -45.5 (-45.5–-45)o/u 55.5 (54.5–55.5)5 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WAG1%

JMU99%

Implied lineJMU -31.4

Volume274k

Open interest266k

Traded 24h128k

Kalshi's market prices JMU to win 99% — about JMU -31.4 vs the book's JMU -46. 14.6-pt gap — the market rates WAG higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 12:30 PMJMU 99%233k vol
Sep 12, 1:01 PMJMU 99%240k vol
Sep 12, 1:30 PMJMU 99%247k vol
Sep 12, 2:00 PMJMU 99%256k vol
Sep 12, 2:30 PMJMU 99%274k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 6:00 AM81°F (feels 83°)wind 10.6 g15precip 7%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 87°)wind 10.9 g14precip 8%
Sep 11, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 84°)wind 8.8 g11precip 8%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.