the yahngorithm

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13Alabama

SEC

Kentucky

SEC

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ABC · Kroger Field

Market spreadALA -9

Market total47

Model spreadALA -9

Edge0

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ALA -9

market ALA -9 · edge 0 · ALA +18.6 vs UK +7.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ALA -8.9

market ALA -9 · edge +0.1 · ALA +18.4 vs UK +6.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Kentucky. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

ALA+18.60-0.1+18.4

UK+7.1-0.3—+6.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ALA expected

27.2

2.4 pts/poss

UK expected

18.2

1.6 pts/poss

Model total

45.4

market 47 · 22.3 poss, average pace

Edge

-1.6

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ALAUK

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home1-01-1

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite2-01-0

ATS as underdog–0-1

ATS after a win1-00-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-01-1

W–L on the road1-0–

Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (UK)	Total
betmgm	+9 -105	47.5 -105
betonlineag	+9 -110	47 -110
betrivers	+9.5 -113	47.5 -110
betus	+9 -110	47 -110
bovada	+9.5 -110	47 -115
draftkings	+8.5 -108	46.5 -115
fanduel	+9.5 -115	47.5 -105
lowvig	+9 -106	47 -108
mybookieag	+9 -110	47 -110

Best UK number +9.5 · best ALA number -8.5. Best over 46.5 · best under 47.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UK's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyALA -9 (8.5–9.5)o/u 47 (46.5–47.5)9 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyALA -9 (8.5–10)o/u 47 (46.5–48)9 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyALA -9.5 (8.5–10.5)o/u 47.5 (46.5–48.5)9 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyALA -10 (10–10.5)o/u 48.5 (48–48.5)9 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyALA -10 (10–10.5)o/u 48.5 (48–48.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ALA99%

UK1%▼ 21.8

Implied lineALA -31.4

Volume12198k

Open interest6401k

Traded 24h11986k

Kalshi's market prices UK to win 1% — about ALA -31.4 vs the book's ALA -9. 22.4-pt gap — the market rates ALA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 4:01 PMUK 36%5033k vol
Sep 12, 4:31 PMUK 41%7385k vol
Sep 12, 5:01 PMUK 40%8832k vol
Sep 12, 6:01 PMUK 1%12197k vol
Sep 12, 6:01 PMUK 1%12198k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM79°F (feels 87°)wind 5.8 g9precip 16%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 82°)wind 7.8 g13precip 20%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM78°F (feels 84°)wind 5.6 g17precip 30%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.