the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Akron. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (AKR) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -26.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -26.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -27.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 |
| bovada | -26.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -26.5 -115 | 45.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -26.5 -114 | 46.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -26.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
Best AKR number -26.5 · best RMU number +27.5. Best over 45.5 · best under 46.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from AKR's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyAKR -26.5 (-27.5–-26.5)o/u 45.5 (45.5–46.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyAKR -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 46.5 (45.5–46.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyAKR -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 46.5 (45.5–46.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyAKR -27.5 (-28.5–-27.5)o/u 44.5 (43.5–46.5)7 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyAKR -27.5 (-29–-27.5)o/u 44 (43.5–44.5)6 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices AKR to win 99% — about AKR -31.4 vs the book's AKR -26.5. 4.9-pt gap — the market rates AKR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 4:01 PMAKR 98%807k vol
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMAKR 95%956k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMAKR 99%1027k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMAKR 99%1030k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMAKR 99%1030k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM71°F (feels 76°)wind 5.4 g14precip 59%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM74°F (feels 79°)wind 7.2 g15precip 23%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM72°F (feels 76°)wind 7 g13precip 42%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.