the yahngorithm
← board
UNLV
Mountain West
6
@
North Texas
American Athletic
44
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · DATCU Stadium
Market spreadUNLV -3
Market total58
Model spreadUNLV -13
Edge-10

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UNLV -13
market UNLV -3  ·  edge -10 (away)  ·  UNLV +0.9 vs UNT -14.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UNLV -12.1
market UNLV -3  ·  edge -9.1 (away)  ·  UNLV +0.3 vs UNT -14.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes North Texas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNLV+0.9-0.3-0.3+0.3
UNT-14.6+0.30-14.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNLV expected
36.2
3.1 pts/poss
UNT expected
23.2
2 pts/poss
Model total
59.4
market 58 · 23.4 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams102°F, feels 109°, 38% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
travelUNLV1042 mi, 2hhurts UNLV
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNLVUNT
ATS overall1-2 33%2-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road1-11-0
ATS as favorite1-2 33%–
ATS as underdog–2-0
ATS after a win0-1–
ATS after a loss1-01-0
W–L at home0-11-0
W–L on the road1-10-1
Over / Under0O–3U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UNT)Total
betmgm+2.5 -10258.5 -105
betonlineag+3 -12057.5 -120
betrivers+2.5 -11357.5 -120
betus+3 -12058 -110
bovada+2.5 -10558 -115
draftkings+3 -11857.5 -115
fanduel+3.5 -13458.5 -105
lowvig+3 -11557.5 -119
mybookieag+2.5 -11058 -110

Best UNT number +3.5 · best UNLV number -2.5. Best over 57.5 · best under 58.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UNT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNLV1%
UNT99%▲ 57.8
Implied lineUNT -31.4
Volume757k
Open interest475k
Traded 24h717k

Kalshi's market prices UNT to win 99% — about UNT -31.4 vs the book's UNLV -3. 34.4-pt gap — the market rates UNT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.