the yahngorithm
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UC Davis
Big Sky · FCS
10
@
19SMU
ACC
56
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ACCNX · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Market spreadSMU -32
Market total59
Model spreadSMU -24.3
Edge-7.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SMU -24.3
market SMU -32  ·  edge -7.7 (away)  ·  UCD -12.1 vs SMU +9.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SMU -24.8
market SMU -32  ·  edge -7.2 (away)  ·  UCD -12.1 vs SMU +10 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes SMU. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UCD-12.1—0-12.1
SMU+9.7+0.3+0.1+10

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UCD expected
18.1
1.5 pts/poss
SMU expected
42.4
3.6 pts/poss
Model total
60.6
market 59 · 23.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.6
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams100°F, feels 107°, 39% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
steamSMU3 pts in 3hhelps SMU
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
short weekSMU4.9d resthurts SMU
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.
lookaheadSMUthen Louisvillehurts SMU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.
bad spotSMUshort week + lookaheadhurts SMU
Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UCDSMU
ATS overall0-11-0-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-0-1
ATS as favorite–1-0-1
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SMU)Total
betmgm-32 -11059.5 -105
betonlineag-32 -11859 -110
betrivers-32.5 -11259.5 -110
bovada-32.5 -10559 -115
draftkings-32.5 -10859.5 -105
fanduel-31.5 -11859.5 -105
lowvig-32 -11859 -110

Best SMU number -31.5 · best UCD number +32.5. Best over 59 · best under 59.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 3:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SMU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UCD1%
SMU99%▲ 3.9
Implied lineSMU -31.4
Volume253k
Open interest206k
Traded 24h225k

Kalshi's market prices SMU to win 99% — about SMU -31.4 vs the book's SMU -32. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.