the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Wyoming. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (WYO) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -23 -110 | 44.5 -102 |
| betonlineag | -23.5 -110 | 44 -115 |
| betrivers | -23 -110 | 44.5 -118 |
| bovada | -23.5 -110 | 44 -115 |
| draftkings | -23.5 -108 | 44.5 -102 |
| fanduel | -22.5 -110 | 43.5 -114 |
| lowvig | -23.5 -110 | 44 -115 |
| mybookieag | -24 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
Best WYO number -22.5 · best UNCO number +24. Best over 43.5 · best under 44.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 3:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WYO's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyWYO -23 (-24–-22.5)o/u 44 (43.5–44.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyWYO -23 (-23.5–-21.5)o/u 44.3 (43.5–44.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWYO -22.8 (-23.5–-21.5)o/u 44.5 (43.5–45)8 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyWYO -23.3 (-23.5–-21.5)o/u 46.5 (44–47.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyWYO -23.5 (-23.5–-22)o/u 47.5 (46.5–47.5)6 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices WYO to win 79% — about WYO -10.9 vs the book's WYO -23. 12.1-pt gap — the market rates UNCO higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMWYO 75%379k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMWYO 64%465k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMWYO 25%867k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMWYO 25%867k vol
- Sep 12, 6:30 PMWYO 79%1226k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM77°F (feels 69°)wind 16.3 g26precip 6%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 65°)wind 21.2 g30precip 5%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 67°)wind 19.9 g29precip 5%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.