the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Troy. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TROY) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -23.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -23 -110 | 52.5 -108 |
| bovada | -24 -105 | 52.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -23.5 -115 | 52.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -23.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 |
| mybookieag | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
Best TROY number -23 · best ALST number +24. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 3:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TROY's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyTROY -23.5 (-24.5–-23)o/u 52.58 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyTROY -23.5 (-24–-23)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyTROY -23.5 (-24–-23)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyTROY -23 (-23.5–-22.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyTROY -22.5 (-23.5–-22.5)o/u 51.56 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 20.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TROY to win 99% — about TROY -31.4 vs the book's TROY -23.5. 7.9-pt gap — the market rates TROY higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 4:31 PMTROY 98%150k vol
- Sep 12, 5:01 PMTROY 99%166k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMTROY 99%454k vol
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMTROY 99%454k vol
- Sep 12, 6:30 PMTROY 99%454k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM86°F (feels 96°)wind 4.4 g8precip 21%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM86°F (feels 94°)wind 5.9 g8precip 21%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 92°)wind 5.5 g7precip 8%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.