the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FLA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -51 -110 | 66.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -52 -125 | 66.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -51 -110 | 66.5 -107 |
| bovada | -51.5 -115 | 67 -110 |
| draftkings | -51.5 -112 | 66.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -51.5 -110 | 66.5 -115 |
| lowvig | -52 -115 | 66.5 -115 |
Best FLA number -51 · best CAM number +52. Best over 66.5 · best under 67. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 4:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FLA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyFLA -51 (-52–-50.5)o/u 66.5 (66–67)7 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyFLA -51 (-51.5–-50.5)o/u 66.5 (65.5–67)7 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyFLA -51 (-51.5–-50.5)o/u 66.5 (65.5–67)7 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyFLA -51 (-51–-50.5)o/u 66.5 (65.5–67)7 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyFLA -50.5 (-51–-50.5)o/u 66 (65.5–67.5)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 21.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FLA to win 99% — about FLA -31.4 vs the book's FLA -51. 19.6-pt gap — the market rates CAM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 6:01 PMFLA 99%763k vol
- Sep 12, 6:30 PMFLA 99%776k vol
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMFLA 99%777k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMFLA 99%778k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMFLA 99%778k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM87°F (feels 94°)wind 6 g8precip 9%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 87°)wind 3.7 g5precip 44%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 86°)wind 2.3 g4precip 21%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.