the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Ohio. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (OHIO) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -2 -108 | 49.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | +1 -120 | 48.5 -105 |
| betrivers | -2 -110 | 50 -114 |
| betus | -1 -110 | 48.5 -105 |
| bovada | -1.5 -105 | 49 -110 |
| draftkings | +1.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 |
| fanduel | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 |
| lowvig | +1 -116 | 48.5 -103 |
| mybookieag | -2 -110 | 50 -110 |
Best OHIO number +1.5 · best JXST number +2. Best over 48.5 · best under 50. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OHIO's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyOHIO -1.5 (-2.5–1.5)o/u 50 (48.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyOHIO -1.5 (-2.5–0)o/u 50.5 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyOHIO -1.5 (-2.5–-1)o/u 50.5 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyOHIO -2.5 (-2.5–-1.5)o/u 50 (49–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyOHIO -2.5 (-2.5–-2)o/u 49.5 (49–50.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 21.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices OHIO to win 99% — about OHIO -31.4 vs the book's OHIO -1.5. 29.9-pt gap — the market rates OHIO higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMOHIO 28%407k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMOHIO 12%476k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMOHIO 35%716k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMOHIO 77%1497k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMOHIO 99%2602k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM76°F (feels 84°)wind 2.4 g3precip 39%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 85°)wind 3.9 g15precip 44%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 82°)wind 3.5 g4precip 42%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.