the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida International. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FIU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -8 -110 | 48 -107 |
| betrivers | -9 -110 | 47.5 -110 |
| betus | -8 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| bovada | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -109 |
| fanduel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -8 -106 | 48 -105 |
| mybookieag | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 |
Best FIU number -8 · best BUF number +9. Best over 47.5 · best under 48.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FIU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyFIU -9 (-10.5–-8)o/u 47.5 (47–48.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyFIU -10 (-10.5–-10)o/u 47.5 (47–48)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyFIU -10 (-10.5–-10)o/u 47.5 (47–48)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyFIU -10 (-10.5–-10)o/u 47.5 (47–48)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyFIU -10 (-10.5–-10)o/u 47.5 (46.5–47.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 21.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FIU to win 99% — about FIU -31.4 vs the book's FIU -9. 22.4-pt gap — the market rates FIU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 6:30 PMFIU 96%335k vol
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMFIU 91%377k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMFIU 98%410k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMFIU 99%438k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMFIU 99%444k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM77°F (feels 83°)wind 9.2 g19precip 39%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 92°)wind 4.8 g6precip 24%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 92°)wind 1.4 g7precip 25%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.