the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Liberty. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (LIB) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -28.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -29 -105 | 55.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -28.5 -109 | 54.5 -120 |
| bovada | -28.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -29.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -28.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 |
| lowvig | -29 -105 | 55.5 -110 |
Best LIB number -28.5 · best GWEB number +29.5. Best over 54.5 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LIB's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyLIB -28.5 (-29.5–-28)o/u 55.5 (54.5–55.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyLIB -28.3 (-29–-27.5)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)7 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyLIB -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 55.3 (54.5–55.5)6 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyLIB -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 55.3 (54.5–55.5)6 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyLIB -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 55.5 (54.5–55.5)5 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices LIB to win 99% — about LIB -31.4 vs the book's LIB -28.5. 2.9-pt gap — the market rates LIB higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 12:30 PMLIB 75%259k vol
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMLIB 82%296k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMLIB 55%470k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMLIB 55%672k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMLIB 99%1002k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM82°F (feels 88°)wind 7 g12precip 20%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 88°)wind 6.2 g11precip 36%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 87°)wind 3.8 g11precip 35%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.