the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Western Michigan. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (WMU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -29.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -29.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 |
| bovada | -28.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -29.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -29.5 -120 | 54.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
Best WMU number -28.5 · best MONM number +29.5. Best over 53.5 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WMU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyWMU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 54.5 (53.5–54.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyWMU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 54.5 (53.5–55)7 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyWMU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–55)7 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWMU -28.3 (-29.5–-27.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyWMU -27.5 (-28–-27.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 21.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices WMU to win 99% — about WMU -31.4 vs the book's WMU -29. 2.4-pt gap — the market rates WMU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMWMU 99%317k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMWMU 99%318k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMWMU 99%321k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMWMU 99%323k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMWMU 99%323k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM83°Fwind 11.7 g17precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM82°F (feels 84°)wind 10.5 g16precip 1%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 82°)wind 10.2 g15precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.