the yahngorithm

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20Tennessee

SEC

Georgia Tech

ACC

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Bobby Dodd Stadium

Market spreadTENN -12.5

Market total55.5

Model spreadTENN -15.7

Edge-3.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TENN -15.7

market TENN -12.5 · edge -3.2 (away) · TENN +18.5 vs GT +0.3 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TENN -15.5

market TENN -12.5 · edge -3 (away) · TENN +18.2 vs GT -0.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

TENN+18.5+0.1-0.4+18.2

GT+0.3-0.30-0.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TENN expected

34.5

3.1 pts/poss

GT expected

18.8

1.7 pts/poss

Model total

53.4

market 55.5 · 22.3 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.1

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TENNGT

ATS overall1-10-2

ATS at home0-10-2

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite1-10-1

ATS as underdog–0-1

ATS after a win1-0–

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home1-00-2

W–L on the road1-0–

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (GT)	Total
betmgm	+12 -110	55.5 -108
betonlineag	+13 -120	55.5 -110
betrivers	+12 -112	55.5 -110
betus	+13 -120	55.5 -110
bovada	+12 -110	55.5 -110
draftkings	+12.5 -115	55.5 -110
fanduel	+12.5 -110	55.5 -110
lowvig	+12.5 -108	55.5 -108
mybookieag	+12 -110	55.5 -110

Best GT number +13 · best TENN number -12. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from GT's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyTENN -12.5 (12–13)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyTENN -12 (11.5–12.5)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyTENN -12 (11.5–12.5)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyTENN -12 (11.5–12.5)o/u 55.59 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyTENN -12 (11.5–12.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TENN99%

GT1%▼ 18.6

Implied lineTENN -31.4

Volume3080k

Open interest1871k

Traded 24h3018k

Kalshi's market prices GT to win 1% — about TENN -31.4 vs the book's TENN -12.5. 18.9-pt gap — the market rates TENN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 8:00 PMGT 6%2413k vol
Sep 12, 8:30 PMGT 2%2575k vol
Sep 12, 9:00 PMGT 10%2780k vol
Sep 12, 9:30 PMGT 1%3042k vol
Sep 12, 10:00 PMGT 1%3080k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM80°F (feels 90°)wind 0.8 g6precip 4%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 88°)wind 1.8 g7precip 12%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM80°F (feels 88°)wind 5 g9precip 18%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.