the yahngorithm

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Western Carolina

Southern · FCS

Cincinnati

Big 12

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Nippert Stadium

Market spreadCIN -36

Market total61.5

Model spreadCIN -33.8

Edge-2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CIN -33.8

market CIN -36 · edge -2.2 · WCU -26.8 vs CIN +4.5 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CIN -33.6

market CIN -36 · edge -2.4 · WCU -26.9 vs CIN +4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Cincinnati. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

WCU-26.8—-0.1-26.9

CIN+4.5+0.3-0.8+4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WCU expected

13.1

1.2 pts/poss

CIN expected

46.9

4.1 pts/poss

Model total

market 61.5 · 22.6 poss, average pace

Edge

-1.5

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WCUCIN

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–2-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–2-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (CIN)	Total
betmgm	-36 -108	61.5 -108
betonlineag	-36 -115	61.5 -115
betrivers	-37 -112	61 -113
bovada	-36.5 -110	61 -115
draftkings	-36.5 -108	61.5 -110
fanduel	-35.5 -110	61.5 -106
lowvig	-36 -115	61.5 -115

Best CIN number -35.5 · best WCU number +37. Best over 61 · best under 61.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CIN's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyCIN -36 (-37–-35.5)o/u 61.5 (61–61.5)7 books
Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyCIN -36 (-37–-35.5)o/u 61.5 (61–61.5)7 books
Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyCIN -35.5 (-37–-35)o/u 60.5 (60.5–61.5)7 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyCIN -35.5 (-37–-35)o/u 60.5 (60.5–61.5)7 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyCIN -35.5 (-37–-35)o/u 60.5 (60–61.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WCU1%

CIN99%▲ 1

Implied lineCIN -31.4

Volume329k

Open interest309k

Traded 24h303k

Kalshi's market prices CIN to win 99% — about CIN -31.4 vs the book's CIN -36. 4.6-pt gap — the market rates WCU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 7:01 PMCIN 98%297k vol
Sep 12, 7:30 PMCIN 99%325k vol
Sep 12, 8:00 PMCIN 99%329k vol
Sep 12, 8:30 PMCIN 99%329k vol
Sep 12, 9:00 PMCIN 99%329k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM74°F (feels 81°)wind 4.8 g7precip 18%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM74°F (feels 80°)wind 7.9 g16precip 32%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 82°)wind 7.5 g14precip 39%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.