the yahngorithm
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Illinois State
MVFC · FCS
28
@
Northern Illinois
Mountain West
24
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · MW+ · Huskie Stadium
Market spreadILST -2.7
Market total48
Model spreadILST -16
Edge-13.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ILST -16
market ILST -2.7  ·  edge -13.2 (away)  ·  ILST -5.2 vs NIU -23.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ILST -15.2
market ILST -2.7  ·  edge -12.4 (away)  ·  ILST -5.3 vs NIU -23.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Northern Illinois. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ILST-5.2—-0.1-5.3
NIU-23.7—+0.5-23.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ILST expected
35.3
3 pts/poss
NIU expected
19.3
1.6 pts/poss
Model total
54.7
market 48 · 23.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+6.7
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

reverse line moveNorthern Illinoisbook 1.8/30h, 610230 volhurts NIU
Within the last day or so, the book's number moved toward this team while the Kalshi prediction market (real money, no vig) didn't move with it, on a market with real volume. The line drifting this way looks like public money, not a real shift — the sharp market isn't backing it. Lean the other side.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ILSTNIU
ATS overall1-00-2
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite1-0–
ATS as underdog–0-2
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–0-1
W–L at home–0-1
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (NIU)Total
betmgm+3 -11548.5 -102
betonlineag+2.5 -10849 -105
betrivers+3 -11547.5 -115
bovada+2.5 +10048 -110
draftkings+2.5 -10847.5 -116
fanduel+3.5 -13047.5 -115
lowvig+2.5 -10849 -105
mybookieag+3 -110–

Best NIU number +3.5 · best ILST number -2.5. Best over 47.5 · best under 49. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NIU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ILST99%
NIU1%▼ 34.6
Implied lineILST -31.4
Volume610k
Open interest346k
Traded 24h493k

Kalshi's market prices NIU to win 1% — about ILST -31.4 vs the book's ILST -2.7. 28.7-pt gap — the market rates ILST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.