the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Tulane. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TULN) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -9.5 -112 | 48.5 -102 |
| betonlineag | -9 -113 | 48 -107 |
| betrivers | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| betus | -9 -110 | 48 -105 |
| bovada | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -9.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -10.5 -105 | 48.5 -104 |
| lowvig | -9 -109 | 48 -105 |
| mybookieag | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 |
Best TULN number -9 · best USA number +10.5. Best over 47.5 · best under 48.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TULN's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyTULN -9.5 (-10.5–-9)o/u 48 (47.5–48.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyTULN -9.5 (-10–-9)o/u 48 (47.5–48.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyTULN -9.5 (-9.5–-9)o/u 48 (48–48.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyTULN -9.5 (-10–-9)o/u 48.5 (48–49)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyTULN -9.5 (-10–-9.5)o/u 49.5 (48.5–49.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TULN to win 50% — about TULN -0.2 vs the book's TULN -9.5. 9.3-pt gap — the market rates USA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMTULN 59%513k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMTULN 78%638k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMTULN 52%734k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMTULN 70%916k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMTULN 50%1143k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM79°F (feels 87°)wind 4.5 g10precip 16%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 91°)wind 9.4 g15precip 12%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 83°)wind 6.8 g14precip 23%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.