the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Colorado State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.2 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (CSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -20 -108 | 57.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -20 -110 | 57.5 -112 |
| betrivers | -20.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 |
| bovada | -20 -110 | 57 -115 |
| draftkings | -19.5 -112 | 57.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -20.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -20 -110 | 57.5 -112 |
| mybookieag | -20 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
Best CSU number -19.5 · best SUU number +20.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyCSU -20 (-20.5–-19.5)o/u 57.5 (57–57.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyCSU -20.5 (-20.5–-19.5)o/u 57.5 (56.5–57.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyCSU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 57.5 (56.5–57.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyCSU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 57.5 (56.5–57.5)8 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyCSU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 57.5 (56.5–57.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices CSU to win 99% — about CSU -31.4 vs the book's CSU -20. 11.4-pt gap — the market rates CSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMCSU 96%88k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMCSU 99%147k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMCSU 99%147k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMCSU 99%147k vol
- Sep 12, 9:30 PMCSU 99%148k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM76°F (feels 72°)wind 10 g16precip 3%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 77°)wind 9.3 g15precip 6%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM82°F (feels 75°)wind 12.3 g18precip 6%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.