the yahngorithm
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Lindenwood
OVC · FCS
14
@
Missouri State
Conference USA
48
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Plaster Sports Complex
Market spreadMOST -16.5
Market total53.5
Model spreadMOST -13.9
Edge-2.6

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MOST -13.9
market MOST -16.5  ·  edge -2.6 (away)  ·  LIN -37.1 vs MOST -25.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MOST -15.2
market MOST -16.5  ·  edge -1.3  ·  LIN -37.2 vs MOST -24.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Missouri State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
LIN-37.1—0-37.2
MOST-25.7+0.3+0.8-24.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

LIN expected
19.3
1.6 pts/poss
MOST expected
33.2
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
52.4
market 53.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamLindenwood3.3 pts in 3hhelps LIN
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
reverse line moveLindenwoodbook -3.2/30h, 179062 volhurts LIN
Within the last day or so, the book's number moved toward this team while the Kalshi prediction market (real money, no vig) didn't move with it, on a market with real volume. The line drifting this way looks like public money, not a real shift — the sharp market isn't backing it. Lean the other side.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

LINMOST
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MOST)Total
betmgm-16.5 -11053.5 -108
betonlineag-16.5 -10553.5 -110
betrivers-16 -11453.5 -112
bovada-17 +10053 -110
draftkings-16.5 -11253.5 -110
fanduel-16.5 -11053.5 -110
mybookieag-17 -11054 -110

Best MOST number -16 · best LIN number +17. Best over 53 · best under 54. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MOST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

LIN1%
MOST99%▲ 10
Implied lineMOST -31.4
Volume179k
Open interest137k
Traded 24h168k

Kalshi's market prices MOST to win 99% — about MOST -31.4 vs the book's MOST -16.5. 14.9-pt gap — the market rates MOST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.