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Towson

Coastal Athletic · FCS

South Carolina

SEC

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · SECN+ · Williams-Brice Stadium

Market spreadSC -44.5

Market total57.5

Model spreadSC -55.5

Edge+11

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SC -55.5

market SC -44.5 · edge +11 (home) · TOW -37.7 vs SC +15.3 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SC -56.6

market SC -44.5 · edge +12.1 (home) · TOW -37.8 vs SC +15.9 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes South Carolina. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

TOW-37.7—-0.1-37.8

SC+15.3+0.3+0.4+15.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TOW expected

0.6 pts/poss

SC expected

41.3

3.6 pts/poss

Model total

48.3

market 57.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace

Edge

-9.2

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TOWSC

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road2-0–

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog2-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-2–

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (SC)	Total
betmgm	-44.5 -110	57.5 -110
betonlineag	-44.5 -115	57 -115
betrivers	-44 -113	57 -112
bovada	-44.5 -110	57.5 -110
draftkings	-44.5 -112	57.5 -108
fanduel	-44.5 -110	57.5 -110
lowvig	-44.5 -115	57 -115

Best SC number -44 · best TOW number +44.5. Best over 57 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SC's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailySC -44.5 (-44.5–-44)o/u 57.5 (57–57.5)7 books
Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailySC -44.5 (-44.5–-43.5)o/u 57 (57–57.5)7 books
Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailySC -44 (-44.5–-43.5)o/u 57 (56.5–57.5)7 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailySC -44 (-44.5–-43.5)o/u 57 (56.5–57.5)7 books
Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailySC -44 (-44.5–-43)o/u 56.5 (55–57.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TOW1%

SC99%

Implied lineSC -31.4

Volume207k

Open interest202k

Traded 24h152k

Kalshi's market prices SC to win 99% — about SC -31.4 vs the book's SC -44.5. 13.1-pt gap — the market rates TOW higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 8:30 PMSC 99%203k vol
Sep 12, 9:00 PMSC 99%203k vol
Sep 12, 9:30 PMSC 99%204k vol
Sep 12, 10:00 PMSC 99%207k vol
Sep 12, 10:30 PMSC 99%207k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM86°F (feels 91°)wind 5.9 g11precip 16%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 91°)wind 6.7 g10precip 16%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 85°)wind 3.2 g6precip 24%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.