the yahngorithm
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West Georgia
UAC · FCS
7
@
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
52
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Centennial Bank Stadium
Market spreadARST -31.5
Market total56.5
Model spreadARST -28.4
Edge-3.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ARST -28.4
market ARST -31.5  ·  edge -3.1 (away)  ·  WGA -42.4 vs ARST -16.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ARST -29.2
market ARST -31.5  ·  edge -2.3  ·  WGA -42.5 vs ARST -16 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Arkansas State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WGA-42.4—0-42.5
ARST-16.5+0.3+0.2-16

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WGA expected
11.7
1 pts/poss
ARST expected
40.1
3.4 pts/poss
Model total
51.8
market 56.5 · 23.7 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.7
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WGAARST
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-20-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-20-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss0-11-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-20-1
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ARST)Total
betmgm-32 -10856.5 -110
betonlineag-32.5 -11556.5 -115
betrivers-31.5 -11457 -113
bovada-31.5 -11557 -105
draftkings-31.5 -11256.5 -108
fanduel-31.5 -11556.5 -110
lowvig-32.5 -11556.5 -115
mybookieag–56.5 -110

Best ARST number -31.5 · best WGA number +32.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WGA1%
ARST99%▲ 3
Implied lineARST -31.4
Volume203k
Open interest114k
Traded 24h191k

Kalshi's market prices ARST to win 99% — about ARST -31.4 vs the book's ARST -31.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.