the yahngorithm
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Tulsa
American Athletic
23
@
Sam Houston
Conference USA
17
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Market spreadTLSA -12.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadTLSA -16.7
Edge-4.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TLSA -16.7
market TLSA -12.5  ·  edge -4.2 (away)  ·  TLSA -3.7 vs SHSU -22.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TLSA -15.4
market TLSA -12.5  ·  edge -2.9 (away)  ·  TLSA -3.8 vs SHSU -21.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Sam Houston. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
TLSA-3.7—-0.1-3.8
SHSU-22.9+0.3+0.8-21.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TLSA expected
36.7
3 pts/poss
SHSU expected
20
1.6 pts/poss
Model total
56.8
market 51.5 · 24.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+5.3
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownTulsabeat Oklahoma Statehurts TLSA
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TLSASHSU
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite0-1–
ATS as underdog1-02-0
ATS after a win0-1–
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home1-00-1
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under0O–2U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SHSU)Total
betmgm+12.5 -11051.5 -115
betonlineag+13 -10552 -110
betrivers+12 -11051.5 -113
betus+12.5 -11052 -110
bovada+11.5 -11052 -110
draftkings+13.5 -11851.5 -109
fanduel+12.5 -10551.5 -110
lowvig+13 -10452 -108
mybookieag+12.5 -11051.5 -110

Best SHSU number +13.5 · best TLSA number -11.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SHSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TLSA99%
SHSU1%▼ 16.8
Implied lineTLSA -31.4
Volume1148k
Open interest721k
Traded 24h1139k

Kalshi's market prices SHSU to win 1% — about TLSA -31.4 vs the book's TLSA -12.5. 18.9-pt gap — the market rates TLSA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.