the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Wisconsin. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (WIS) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -43.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -43.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -42.5 -112 | 52 -114 |
| bovada | -43 -115 | 53 -110 |
| draftkings | -43.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -42.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -43.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
Best WIS number -42.5 · best WIU number +43.5. Best over 52 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WIS's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyWIS -43.5 (-43.5–-42.5)o/u 53 (52–53.5)7 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyWIS -42.5 (-43.5–-42.5)o/u 52 (51.5–53)7 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyWIS -42.5 (-43–-42)o/u 52 (51.5–52)7 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyWIS -42.5 (-43–-42)o/u 52 (51.5–52)7 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWIS -42.5 (-43–-42)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices WIS to win 99% — about WIS -31.4 vs the book's WIS -43.5. 12.1-pt gap — the market rates WIU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 7:01 PMWIS 99%294k vol
- Sep 12, 7:30 PMWIS 99%299k vol
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMWIS 99%319k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMWIS 99%329k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMWIS 99%329k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM76°F (feels 80°)wind 4.7 g11precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 76°)wind 9.5 g16precip 1%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 71°)wind 11.9 g19precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.