the yahngorithm
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Iowa State
Big 12
13
@
22Iowa
Big Ten
16
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · NBC · Kinnick Stadium
Market spreadIOWA -14
Market total42.5
Model spreadIOWA -17.4
Edge+3.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel IOWA -17.4
market IOWA -14  ·  edge +3.4 (home)  ·  ISU +1.7 vs IOWA +16.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel IOWA -17.6
market IOWA -14  ·  edge +3.6 (home)  ·  ISU +0.9 vs IOWA +15.6 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Iowa. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ISU+1.7—-0.8+0.9
IOWA+16.6-0.3-0.6+15.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ISU expected
13.6
1.2 pts/poss
IOWA expected
31
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
44.6
market 42.5 · 22.2 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeIowalost by 3 (rivalry)helps IOWA
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ISUIOWA
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite0-11-1
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under0O–2U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (IOWA)Total
betmgm-14 -11042.5 -112
betonlineag-14 -11042.5 -115
betrivers-14.5 -11042 -112
betus-14 -11042.5 -115
bovada-14 -11542.5 -110
draftkings-14 -11542.5 -115
fanduel-14.5 -10242.5 -115
lowvig-14 -10642.5 -114
mybookieag-14 -11043 -110

Best IOWA number -14 · best ISU number +14.5. Best over 42 · best under 43. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IOWA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ISU1%
IOWA99%▲ 15.7
Implied lineIOWA -31.4
Volume4623k
Open interest2523k
Traded 24h4131k

Kalshi's market prices IOWA to win 99% — about IOWA -31.4 vs the book's IOWA -14. 17.4-pt gap — the market rates IOWA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKIOWA -14.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +2.9 edgeLOSS
model 17.4logged 14.5close 14CLV -0.5
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.