the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Oregon State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ORST) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +25.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | +25.5 -113 | 52 -115 |
| betrivers | +26 -109 | 52.5 -113 |
| betus | +25.5 -110 | 52 -115 |
| bovada | +25.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| draftkings | +25.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 |
| fanduel | +26.5 -120 | 52.5 -105 |
| lowvig | +25.5 -109 | 52 -114 |
| mybookieag | +25.5 -110 | 52 -110 |
Best ORST number +26.5 · best TTU number -25.5. Best over 52 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ORST's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyTTU -25.5 (25.5–26.5)o/u 52.5 (52–52.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyTTU -25.5 (25–26.5)o/u 52.5 (52–52.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyTTU -26 (25–26.5)o/u 53 (52–53.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyTTU -26 (25.5–26.5)o/u 53 (52.5–53.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyTTU -26 (25.5–26.5)o/u 53.3 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ORST to win 1% — about TTU -31.4 vs the book's TTU -25.5. 5.9-pt gap — the market rates TTU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMORST 6%1351k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMORST 8%1745k vol
- Sep 12, 9:30 PMORST 37%2393k vol
- Sep 12, 10:00 PMORST 6%3646k vol
- Sep 12, 10:30 PMORST 1%4614k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM62°F (feels 57°)wind 12 g16precip 13%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM64°F (feels 57°)wind 15.4 g21precip 13%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM60°F (feels 57°)wind 9.5 g16precip 27%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.