the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida Atlantic. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FAU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +5 -110 | 59.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | +5 -105 | 59.5 -107 |
| betrivers | +5 -109 | 59.5 -113 |
| betus | +5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| bovada | +4.5 -105 | 60 -105 |
| draftkings | +4.5 -108 | 59.5 -110 |
| fanduel | +5.5 -114 | 59.5 -110 |
| lowvig | +5 -101 | 59.5 -105 |
| mybookieag | +5 -110 | 60 -110 |
Best FAU number +5.5 · best NAVY number -4.5. Best over 59.5 · best under 60. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FAU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyNAVY -4 (4–5.5)o/u 59.5 (59–60)9 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyNAVY -4 (4–4.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyNAVY -4 (4–4.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyNAVY -4 (4–5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyNAVY -4.5 (4–5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FAU to win 96% — about FAU -23.7 vs the book's NAVY -4. 27.7-pt gap — the market rates FAU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 8:00 PMFAU 78%928k vol
- Sep 12, 8:30 PMFAU 95%1073k vol
- Sep 12, 9:00 PMFAU 99%1157k vol
- Sep 12, 9:30 PMFAU 99%1167k vol
- Sep 12, 10:00 PMFAU 96%1213k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM76°F (feels 82°)wind 9.8 g17precip 40%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 85°)wind 0.6 g4precip 25%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 94°)wind 3.6 g6precip 13%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.