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1Ohio State
Big Ten
23
@
5Texas
SEC
24
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ABC · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Market spreadTEX -2
Market total50.5
Model spreadOSU -2.1
Edge-4.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel OSU -2.1
market TEX -2  ·  edge -4.1 (away)  ·  OSU +28.6 vs TEX +24 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel OSU -1.3
market TEX -2  ·  edge -3.3 (away)  ·  OSU +28 vs TEX +23.9 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
OSU+28.6-0.3-0.3+28
TEX+24-0.3+0.2+23.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

OSU expected
25.3
2.3 pts/poss
TEX expected
23.2
2.1 pts/poss
Model total
48.5
market 50.5 · 21.6 poss, average pace
Edge
-2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams98°F, feels 103°, 45% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
revengeTexaslost by 7helps TEX
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

OSUTEX
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite1-01-1
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TEX)Total
betmgm-2.5 -10850.5 -118
betonlineag-2.5 -11051 -115
betrivers-1.5 -11450.5 -110
betus-2.5 -11051 -115
bovada-2 -11051 -110
draftkings-2.5 -11250.5 -115
fanduel-2.5 -10850.5 -118
lowvig-2.5 -10651 -114
mybookieag-2.5 -11050.5 -110

Best TEX number -1.5 · best OSU number +2.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TEX's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

OSU51%
TEX49%▼ 3.5
Implied lineOSU -0.3
Volume41129k
Open interest25253k
Traded 24h35491k

Kalshi's market prices TEX to win 49% — about OSU -0.3 vs the book's TEX -2. 2.3-pt gap — the market rates OSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKUnder 49.5total · sp_plus · logged at -3.8 edgeWIN
model 45.7logged 49.5close 49.5CLV 0
wind

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.