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Grambling
SWAC · FCS
7
@
TCU
Big 12
63
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Market spread—
Market total—
Model spreadTCU -33
Edge—

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TCU -33
 ·  GRAM -28 vs TCU +2.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TCU -33.3
 ·  GRAM -28 vs TCU +2.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 0 books. Positive edge = model likes TCU. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
GRAM-28——-28
TCU+2.5+0.3-0.2+2.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

GRAM expected
8.8
0.8 pts/poss
TCU expected
41.8
3.7 pts/poss
Model total
50.6
no market total · 22.9 poss, average pace
Edge
–

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

GRAMTCU
ATS overall–0-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under–0O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

GRAM1%
TCU99%
Implied lineTCU -31.4
Volume436k
Open interest423k
Traded 24h248k

Kalshi's market prices TCU to win 99% — about TCU -31.4 Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.