the yahngorithm
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Prairie View A&M
SWAC · FCS
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Baylor
Big 12
44
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · McLane Stadium
Market spreadBAY -37.5
Market total55.5
Model spreadBAY -30.6
Edge-6.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BAY -30.6
market BAY -37.5  ·  edge -6.9 (away)  ·  PV -24.6 vs BAY +3.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BAY -31.2
market BAY -37.5  ·  edge -6.3 (away)  ·  PV -24.6 vs BAY +3.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Baylor. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
PV-24.6—0-24.6
BAY+3.5+0.2+0.2+3.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

PV expected
15.7
1.3 pts/poss
BAY expected
46.3
3.9 pts/poss
Model total
62.1
market 55.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+6.6
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams98°F, feels 101°, 38% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

PVBAY
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (BAY)Total
betmgm-37.5 -10855.5 -112
betonlineag-37.5 -11856 -110
betrivers-37.5 -11455 -110
bovada-37.5 -11055.5 -110
draftkings-37.5 -11255.5 -110
fanduel-37.5 -11855.5 -115
lowvig-37.5 -11856 -110

Best over 55 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 7:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BAY's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

PV1%
BAY99%
Implied lineBAY -31.4
Volume534k
Open interest528k
Traded 24h473k

Kalshi's market prices BAY to win 99% — about BAY -31.4 vs the book's BAY -37.5. 6.1-pt gap — the market rates PV higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.