the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Air Force. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.6 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (AF) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +2 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | +2 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| betrivers | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 |
| betus | +1.5 -110 | 48 -110 |
| bovada | +2 -115 | 48.5 -110 |
| draftkings | +1.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 |
| fanduel | +2.5 -120 | 48.5 -114 |
| lowvig | +2 -106 | 48.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | +1.5 -110 | 48 -110 |
Best AF number +2.5 · best NDSU number -1.5. Best over 47.5 · best under 48.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from AF's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 8:00 PM · dailyNDSU -2 (1.5–2.5)o/u 47.5 (47.5–48.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyNDSU -1.5 (-1–2.5)o/u 47.59 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyNDSU -2 (1.5–2.5)o/u 47.59 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyNDSU -2 (1.5–2.5)o/u 47.59 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyNDSU -2 (1.5–2.5)o/u 47.59 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices AF to win 1% — about NDSU -31.4 vs the book's NDSU -2. 29.4-pt gap — the market rates NDSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 10:30 PMAF 23%1388k vol
- Sep 12, 11:00 PMAF 10%1839k vol
- Sep 12, 11:30 PMAF 3%2539k vol
- Sep 13, 12:00 AMAF 2%3818k vol
- Sep 13, 12:30 AMAF 1%4597k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM62°F (feels 58°)wind 8.1 g19precip 1%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM65°F (feels 61°)wind 7.2 g14precip 8%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM63°Fwind 1.4 g2precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.