the yahngorithm

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Arkansas

SEC

21Utah

Big 12

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Rice-Eccles Stadium

Market spreadUTAH -12.5

Market total55.5

Model spreadUTAH -12.2

Edge-0.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UTAH -12.2

market UTAH -12.5 · edge -0.3 · ARK +1.9 vs UTAH +11.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UTAH -12.9

market UTAH -12.5 · edge +0.4 · ARK +1.5 vs UTAH +11.3 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Utah. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

ARK+1.9-0.3-0.1+1.5

UTAH+11.60-0.3+11.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ARK expected

22.8

2 pts/poss

UTAH expected

3 pts/poss

Model total

57.8

market 55.5 · 23 poss, average pace

Edge

+2.3

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ARKUTAH

ATS overall0-22-0

ATS at home0-12-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite0-12-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win0-11-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (UTAH)	Total
betmgm	-13 -112	55.5 -108
betonlineag	-13 -110	55.5 -110
betrivers	-12.5 -110	55.5 -112
betus	-12 -110	55.5 -115
bovada	-12.5 -105	55.5 -110
draftkings	-12.5 -108	55.5 -108
fanduel	-12.5 -110	55.5 -110
mybookieag	-12.5 -110	55.5 -110

Best UTAH number -12 · best ARK number +13. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UTAH's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 8:00 PM · dailyUTAH -12.5 (-13–-12)o/u 55.58 books
Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyUTAH -12.5 (-12.5–-12)o/u 55.58 books
Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyUTAH -12.5 (-12.5–-12)o/u 55.58 books
Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyUTAH -12.5 (-13–-11.5)o/u 55.58 books
Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyUTAH -12.5 (-13–-11.5)o/u 55.58 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ARK1%

UTAH99%▲ 18.6

Implied lineUTAH -31.4

Volume3219k

Open interest2327k

Traded 24h3142k

Kalshi's market prices UTAH to win 99% — about UTAH -31.4 vs the book's UTAH -12.5. 18.9-pt gap — the market rates UTAH higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 11:00 PMUTAH 99%3001k vol
Sep 12, 11:30 PMUTAH 99%3161k vol
Sep 13, 12:00 AMUTAH 99%3201k vol
Sep 13, 12:30 AMUTAH 99%3208k vol
Sep 13, 1:00 AMUTAH 99%3219k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 4:02 PM81°F (feels 74°)wind 8.6 g9precip 1%
Sep 12, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 77°)wind 6.7 g7precip 2%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 78°)wind 3.3 g6precip 2%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.